Some races appear straightforward. Others could surprise us. Here are my predictions for the November 3 election—and a few contests where I’m not even going to pretend I know the answer.
On November 4, some candidates will be celebrating, others will be wondering what went wrong, and I may be reconsidering the wisdom of publishing my predictions for everyone to read.
Then again, that’s half the fun.
With early voting underway, I’ve decided to put my expectations for Bell County’s local elections in writing. Some are fairly obvious. Others are considerably more difficult to call, particularly in races where the candidates’ personal relationships, experience and campaign performances may matter as much as their party affiliations.
Unlike my national Senate predictions, these calls aren’t based primarily on polling. Local polling is scarce, and the numbers that do exist aren’t always public. Instead, I’m relying on electoral history, campaign activity, candidate forums, conversations and what I’ve observed while covering local politics.
That’s hardly a perfect science, and it certainly isn’t a guarantee.
These predictions are also not endorsements. The Directory is a nonpartisan newsroom, and my expectations about who will win should not be confused with recommendations about whom voters should support.
For those looking for a complete breakdown of every race and proposition, we’ve already published The Directory’s 2026 Bell County Voter Guide (https://www.thedirectorynews.com/politics). Here, we’re doing something different.
We’re making predictions.
And if I get them wrong, at least there will be a written record for everyone to enjoy.
Congress: The Districts Matter More Than the Campaigns
My predictions: John Carter and Pete Sessions win reelection.
Neither of Bell County’s congressional districts strikes me as particularly susceptible to an upset this year.
Republican incumbents John Carter, representing District 31, and Pete Sessions, representing District 17, enjoy substantial partisan advantages. Their Democratic challengers, Justin Early and Casey Shepard, face the difficult task of overcoming those underlying electoral realities.
The incumbents have approached their public presence differently.
Sessions has maintained a more visible political profile, while Carter has been noticeably absent from much of the local political activity I’ve personally followed. That does not mean Carter or his staff aren’t working, but it does raise a fair question about how accessible a longtime representative should be to the communities he serves.
Incumbency carries advantages, particularly in districts where one party enjoys a substantial electoral edge. It also carries a responsibility to remain engaged with constituents.
Whatever voters think about the candidates individually, I don’t see enough evidence of a shift in either district to change my expectations.
Two Republican holds.
House District 54: Buckley Wins Big
My prediction: Brad Buckley defeats Dawn Richardson by a substantial margin.
Of the competitive state legislative races on Bell County ballots, this is probably the easiest for me to call.
Buckley enters his rematch against Richardson with the advantages of incumbency, considerable campaign resources, an established legislative record and longstanding relationships throughout the district.
But money isn’t everything.
Buckley has built a network of relationships during his time in office, and his campaign benefits from the familiarity that comes with years of public service. He’s also demonstrated that maintaining support doesn’t always require asking supporters for another contribution at every opportunity.
Richardson has continued making her case to voters and offers a different perspective on education and state government. But I haven’t seen evidence of a sufficiently significant change in the district’s political makeup to suggest a different outcome from 2024.
I expect Buckley to win comfortably.
House District 55: Hickland survives tough fight.
My prediction: Hillary Hickland defeats Amelia Rabroker in a close election.
If there’s a legislative race in Bell County capable of producing an Election Night surprise, this is it.
Hickland entered the Texas House after defeating longtime incumbent Hugh Shine in the 2024 Republican primary. Shine had deep relationships throughout the district, and his defeat represented a substantial change in the local Republican political landscape.
I suspect not all of those political divisions have disappeared.
Hickland has established her own identity in the Legislature, particularly through her emphasis on property taxes, government spending and scrutiny of local taxing authorities.
Those priorities resonate with some conservative voters who want a more aggressive approach to government accountability. But they can also create disagreements with longtime local officials and community leaders who have different views about how local government should operate.
Rabroker, meanwhile, presents an opportunity for voters dissatisfied with the incumbent to consider a different direction. Her challenge is convincing enough voters beyond the Democratic base that her approach better represents their interests.
I don’t think that will be easy.
Hickland won approximately 57% of the vote in 2024, a substantial electoral foundation. But that was a different election, with different candidates and a different political environment.
Turnout will matter, particularly if competitive statewide races bring additional Democratic voters to the polls.
There’s also an important distinction between voters who are enthusiastic about a challenger and voters who are simply dissatisfied with an incumbent. Not everyone in the second group necessarily joins the first.
That may ultimately determine the outcome.
I’m calling Hickland to retain her seat, but narrowly. Of my local predictions, this is one I could readily see going the other way.
And whatever happens, I expect District 55 to be among the more interesting Bell County results on November 3.
Commissioner Precinct 2: Whitson Wins the Rematch
My prediction: Bobby Whitson defeats Stacey Wilson.
We’ve seen this contest before.
In 2022, Republican Bobby Whitson defeated Democrat Stacey Wilson by approximately 2,100 votes. Four years later, the two are competing for the same office again.
I don’t expect the result to change.
One of the clearest differences I’ve observed has been visibility.
Whitson seems to be everywhere. From public meetings to community events, he’s consistently present in the local political environment.
Wilson has been less visible at the events I’ve followed, including a candidate forum she did not attend. That doesn’t mean she hasn’t been campaigning elsewhere, but voters have fewer opportunities to evaluate a candidate when they aren’t present at public forums.
Local elections are often about accessibility and relationships just as much as partisan politics. County commissioners oversee issues that residents encounter regularly, including roads, budgets, infrastructure and public services.
Whitson benefits from incumbency, a previous victory over the same opponent and an established community presence.
I expect another Republican hold.
Commissioner Precinct 4: Wilkerson Wins Comfortably
My prediction: Ernest Wilkerson defeats Curtis Emmons by a substantial margin.
Bell County as a whole may lean Republican, but the political landscape changes considerably when we turn toward Killeen.
Commissioner Precinct 4 has demonstrated a willingness to elect Democrats, including incumbent Louie Minor, who Wilkerson defeated in this year’s Democratic primary, meaning a Wilkerson victory in November would represent a Democratic hold rather than a partisan flip.
And that’s what I’m expecting.
Wilkerson brings experience from the Killeen City Council and involvement in local government and community affairs. Emmons brings a different background through business and the construction industry, with particular interests in infrastructure and development.
Both backgrounds offer experience that could be relevant to Commissioners Court.
But campaigns also provide an opportunity to evaluate how candidates explain their priorities, respond to difficult questions and translate their experience into plans for public office.
Having followed the candidates’ public appearances, I came away believing Wilkerson presented a more developed case for how his experience would translate into the responsibilities of county commissioner.
Emmons has emphasized his connection to Bell County and his interest in improving local government. I would have liked to hear more specifics in some of his responses about how he would approach the decisions commissioners face. Emmons has also been hampered by a campaign operation that, at least publicly, has not always projected a strong or locally grounded message. In county races, presentation matters. Voters often form impressions not only from forums and mailers, but from the consistency and quality of a campaign’s public communication. Wilkerson has also benefited from running against that campaign, which, in my view, has not made the strongest case for Curtis Emmons. Its public messaging has often felt generic and at times disconnected from the local community it is trying to reach. In a county race, that kind of weakness matters.
That’s a distinction about campaign presentation, not a dismissal of his experience or commitment to the community.
Ultimately, the precinct’s electoral history and my assessment of the campaigns lead me to expect Wilkerson to win by a substantial margin.
Justice of the Peace: Gonzalez Over Cox
My prediction: Jessica Gonzalez defeats Bea Cox.
The race for Justice of the Peace, Precinct 4, Place 2, is another contest where Bell County’s overall Republican advantage doesn’t necessarily reflect the electorate deciding the race.
Democrats have enjoyed success in this jurisdiction, including Nicola James’ victory in 2022.
This year, Democrat Jessica Gonzalez faces Republican Beatrice “Bea” Cox, and the candidates offer different forms of experience.
Cox has spent years working within the justice-of-the-peace court system. That experience deserves recognition, particularly for an office responsible for matters ranging from small claims and evictions to Class C misdemeanors and magistrate duties.
Gonzalez brings experience as a Killeen City Council member, providing a different background in public administration, constituent services and local government.
Cox’s professional background makes this a race worth taking seriously, and I expect her to make it more competitive than the commissioner contest in Precinct 4.
Nevertheless, I’m calling Gonzalez.
If both Wilkerson and Gonzalez win, voters in the Killeen area will have elected new officeholders while retaining Democratic representation in both positions.
Sometimes an election produces considerable change in personnel without changing the party holding the office.
The Hospital District: Where Is the Plan?
My prediction: Voters reject Proposition A.
Of all the questions facing Bell County voters, this may be one of the most consequential for local government and taxpayers.
And the biggest obstacle facing the proposed hospital district might be the very first words voters read on their ballots:
"THIS IS A TAX INCREASE."
That's quite an introduction in a county where property taxes are already a contentious issue.
Proposition A would establish a hospital district with authority to levy a property tax of up to 75 cents per $100 of taxable value. That is the maximum authorization, not necessarily what the district would initially charge. Commissioner Louie Minor, the proposal's principal advocate, has suggested the rate could be as low as five cents.
Supporters argue that a hospital district could provide dedicated healthcare funding, improve indigent care and bring additional federal resources into Bell County. Those are meaningful considerations for a growing county facing legitimate healthcare challenges.
But as we examined in Where Is the Plan? Bell County Is Voting on a Hospital District, voters still haven't been presented with an adopted operating plan, an initial tax rate, a defined package of services or a financial model explaining how the district would affect the taxes they already pay.
Even Commissioners Court voted 4–1 against calling the election in April. The proposition ultimately reached the ballot through a petition process rather than an agreement among county leadership on a developed healthcare plan.
Adding another wrinkle, Minor isn't even on the November ballot. He lost his March Democratic primary to Ernest Wilkerson and will leave office at the end of the year. If voters approve the district, much of the responsibility for putting it into operation will fall to an appointed board and a Commissioners Court without the proposal's principal advocate.
None of that means a hospital district couldn't improve healthcare in Bell County. But I suspect the combination of a tax-increase warning, opposition from most commissioners to the original election proposal, and the absence of a clear financial and operational roadmap will be difficult to overcome.
Voters may recognize the need to improve healthcare access while remaining skeptical of creating a new government entity before knowing precisely what it will do.
My prediction is that Proposition A fails.
That wouldn't necessarily mean opposition to better healthcare. It could simply mean voters aren't convinced this particular proposal is the right approach.
Races We Can’t Get Wrong
Every election prediction carries some degree of risk. Fortunately, Bell County has given us a few races where even I should be able to pick the winner.
Thirteen county, precinct and district judicial contests have only one certified candidate on the November ballot.
County offices
County Judge — David Blackburn (R)
County Clerk — Shelley Coston (R)
District Clerk — Lacey Martindale (R)
County Treasurer — Adriane Hodges (R)
County Courts at Law
Court No. 1 — Paul Motz (R)
Court No. 2 — John Mischtian (R)
Court No. 3 — John Gauntt Jr. (R)
District Courts
169th Judicial District — Cari Starritt-Burnett (R)
264th Judicial District — Paul L. LePak (R)
478th Judicial District — Wade Faulkner (R)
Justices of the Peace
Precinct 1 — Patrick “Pat” Patterson (R)
Precinct 2 — Michael Tice (R)
Precinct 3, Place 2 — Larry Wilkey (R)
Uncontested doesn’t mean unimportant.
These offices oversee everything from county finances and public records to the administration of justice. In many cases, the only meaningful electoral competition occurred during the primary, months before most voters began paying attention to the general election.
Texas also requires these uncontested county and district candidates to appear on the general-election ballot and receive at least one vote to be elected.
That is a reminder of how consequential primary elections can be, particularly in communities where one party holds a substantial electoral advantage.
But as far as my predictions go, I’m going out on a limb and calling all thirteen for the only candidates on the ballot.
If I somehow manage to get one wrong, it may be time to retire from political forecasting.
The Races I’m Not Calling
There are also a few elections where I don’t have enough information to make a meaningful prediction, including the contested Bell County Appraisal District Board races.
I know some of the candidates and have seen campaign activity, but I haven’t followed those contests closely enough to confidently explain why one candidate might prevail over another.
They’re countywide, nonpartisan elections, which makes party-based predictions less straightforward. A voter may have strong Republican or Democratic preferences without knowing much about the candidates seeking these positions.
I could pick a name and hope for the best. But at that point, I’d be guessing.
And perhaps that illustrates something important about local elections.
Some of the offices closest to our daily lives receive the least public attention. Candidates seeking positions with real responsibilities over budgets, administration and public policy may receive only a fraction of the coverage devoted to higher-profile elections.
It’s a problem The Directory is working to address.
We’ve expanded our candidate interviews, election reporting and coverage of local government, but there is more work ahead. Voters deserve accessible information about the people asking to represent them, regardless of how much money or attention a particular race attracts.
For now, I’m comfortable acknowledging where my own knowledge ends.
November 4: We’ll Find Out
My predictions leave Bell County’s two congressional seats and both Texas House districts in Republican hands.
Whitson retains Commissioner Precinct 2, while Wilkerson and Gonzalez preserve Democratic representation in their respective Killeen-area offices. The hospital district proposal fails.
And, with any luck, I manage to correctly predict the thirteen candidates running without opposition.
But beneath those predictions are some larger questions.
Will lingering political divisions affect the outcome in House District 55? How much does a candidate’s visibility matter in a county race? Can a candidate’s experience and public presentation overcome the political tendencies of the voters they’re seeking to represent?
And how many voters will make their decisions based on the individual candidate rather than simply the party listed beside their name?
Those are questions that deserve attention beyond a single election.
Local offices rarely attract the headlines of congressional and presidential campaigns, but their decisions can have a far more immediate effect on our everyday lives.
I’m confident in some of these predictions and considerably less confident in others.
That’s the nature of elections. The voters have an unfortunate habit of refusing to follow even the most carefully considered political analysis.
By November 4, we’ll know which predictions held up and which ones deserve a correction—or perhaps an apology to my crystal ball.
Until then, there is something much more important than whether I correctly pick the winners.
It’s whether voters show up to make the decisions.
Regardless of who you support, take the time to learn about the candidates, understand the issues and cast your ballot.
After all, decisions are made by those who show up.